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LobbyChess Sunday Column

Vol. VI • August Week 4 Edition
Sunday, August 23, 2026

Your weekly digest of the sharpest tactics, biggest upsets, and most grueling marathons.

📖 Featured: A47 A47, White’s Success
The First Move

Top Players’ Opening Choices

1.e4 and 1.d4 still rule elite chess, but the very best keep their repertoires deliberately wide.

48.5%
1.e4 share of all games
32.2%
1.d4 share
42% · 60%
1.e4: top 10 vs bottom 10
7
distinct first moves seen

Across the season, the opening choices of the world’s top 20 confirm a familiar truth: 1.e4 and 1.d4 still dominate, together accounting for nearly four of every five games, with 1.e4 leading at 48.5 percent and 1.d4 at 32.2 percent. The sharper story is how differently the strongest players distribute their choices. Among the top 10 players 1.e4 accounts for about 42 percent of games, against more than 60 percent among the lower 10, the elite spread their games across more first moves and lean less on a single favorite.

A few signatures stand out. Nakamura leaned on 1.b3 more than anyone else, a reminder that even at the top an offbeat first move remains a weapon, while Keymer built around the flexible 1.Nf3. The chart below shows every player’s first-move mix.

2026-08-24T09:35:35.927912 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.0, https://matplotlib.org/ Carlsen, M 2841 Nakamura, Hi 2810 Caruana, F 2793 Abdusattorov, Nodirbek 2780 Sindarov, Javokhir 2777 Keymer, Vincent 2767 Giri, A 2767 So, W 2765 Erigaisi, Arjun 2761 Firouzja, Alireza 2759 Wei Yi 2753 Karjakin, Sergey 2750 Praggnanandhaa, R 2750 Duda, J 2743 Niemann, Hans Moke 2742 Anand, V 2739 Ding Liren 2738 Nepomniachtchi, I 2735 Van Foreest, Jorden 2735 Dominguez Perez, L 2732 1.e4 1.d4 1.Nf3 1.c4 1.b3

▲ First-move mix of the top 20, ordered by peak rating. Shares are across the five most-played first moves; rare 1.a4 and 1.f4 are omitted.

The Carnage Curve

Decisive Below the Elite, Cautious at the Top

Across 7,466 games, the club and expert ranks produced the most decisive chess, while the 2600 elite drew far more of theirs.

2026-08-24T09:35:35.970521 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.10.0, https://matplotlib.org/ 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 Average rating of the two players 0 25 50 75 100% 74.6% 83.0% 84.2% 75.3% 65.6%

▲ Decisive-game rate by rating band (7,466 games). Decisiveness peaks near 84.2% at the 2200 band, then slides to 65.6% among the 2600 elite.

7,466
games surveyed
79.1%
ended decisively
92% · 64%
online vs OTB
13.1%
100+ gap upsets won outright
🏆 The Roundup
Ashraf topped Titled Tue 11th Aug 2026 at 10.0/11.
👑 Stars Watch
Le 14-3-10; Erigaisi 13-5-5; Carlsen 11-9-0; Firouzja 3-9-8 (games this week).
🐉 Giant-Kill of the Week
McLain,Dylan Michael, rated 1858, took down Zhou Jianchao (2575), a 717-point gap in a single game. See David vs Goliath →
🛡️ Iron Man
Paravyan played the most, 44 games, scoring 30.5 for 69%.
⚔️ The Battleground
The A45 was the single busiest opening at 203 games, with Black scoring 38.7%. The A05 followed at 189 games (Black 43.4%).
📖 This Week’s Deep Dive
A47 A47: White’s Success

An interactive study of White’s most instructive wins in the A47.

Read the full breakdown →
Inside This Issue
🔥 Players on Fire: Who overperformed their rating this week.
⚔️ Opening Explorer: The season’s highest-scoring lines by Elo band.
🧝 David vs Goliath: The full board of the week’s giant-kills.
⏱️ Endgame Grinds: The marathons that refused to end.
🛡️ Ironmen: The grinders who played the most chess.
⚡ Master Miniatures: Elite games decided in under 25 moves.
👑 Carlsen’s Corner: Every Magnus game this season, replayable.

Players Outperforming Their Rating

PlayerGamesScoreActual RatingPerformance RatingRating Diff
Muradli,Mahammad54.526302890260
Uskov,Artem54.025052711206
Dau Khuong Duy119.025262711185
Aditya,Mittal54.025932773180
Abdisalimov,Abdimalik75.525362707171
Terry,R4432.025002646146
Lazavik,Denis2512.526212766145
Makarian,Rudik1412.025432671128
Oro,Faustino2217.025372657120
Suleymanli,Aydin64.026682784116
So,W64.027652878113
Vachier Lagrave,M63.527132817104
Sardana,Rishi75.025062608102
Tsydypov,Z1611.52509260697
Sokolovsky,Yahli54.02541263897
PlayerGamesScoreActual RatingPerformance RatingRating Diff
Avanesian,Artem2216.022122597385
Celik,Ali Alper74.522162531315
Borgaonkar,Akshay118.523962697301
Navumenka,Mikhei53.522972579282
Zharas,Aldiyar86.022852562277
Dyachuk,Artem55.023762643267
Muradli,Mahammad54.526302890260
Sivakumar,Shaaketh158.522382493255
Moreno Perez,Tobias Sebastian54.523672613246
Botta,Massimiliano63.522762518242
Stankovic,Boris54.023042545241
Sharipov,Davron117.522792513234
Kleschevnikov,Arseny86.023112541230
Mikhailovsky,Vladimir117.022152444229
Pashikyan,Rudolf53.523472573226
PlayerGamesScoreActual RatingPerformance RatingRating Diff
Isakov,Amin86.518602612752
Richterova,Natasa 197452.015292144615
Asish Panda117.519742458484
Kozhedub,Ivan84.519622404442
Zhelonkin,Kirill Mikh84.519562391435
Oberoi,Shelev85.021722591419
Shavkatov,Temur84.520272436409
Aslanyan,Arman S.83.018612265404
Avanesian,Artem2216.022122597385
Makhina,Viktoria84.019642341377
Ortiz Menacho,Sebastian Alonso55.020642424360
Astrovski,Roman83.018972254357
Morello Ostos,D64.019362288352
Abdukayumov,Alisher83.519852336351
Sagynbekova,Zhibek82.018122162350

Opening Explorer (Season)

Explore the highest-performing openings across different Elo tiers and time controls.

David vs Goliath: The Biggest Upsets

The Endgame Grind: Longest Games

The Most Active Tournament Grinders

PlayerGames PlayedScoreAvg Elo
Paravyan,D4430.52597
Rustemov,A4425.02525
Terry,R4432.02500
Taher,Yoseph Theolifus4331.02451
Chen,Yidong4321.52117
Santiago Vilca,Christian Amilca4022.02274
Ocampos,I3717.02286
Miserendino,A369.52043
Moosavifar,Seyed Abolfazl3521.02419
Pribelszky,Bence3417.02366
Mahdavi,Reza3422.52485
Zierk,S3320.52489
Volchkova,Alena3316.02162
Steinberg,N3324.02560
Di Liberto,Michele3314.02219

Best Wins of the Top 10 Ironmen

Blink and You Missed It: Master Crushes

Magnus Carlsen: Season Performance

Weekly Record: 104 Wins | 28 Draws | 26 Losses