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LobbyChess Sunday Column

Vol. VI • July Week 1 Edition
Sunday, July 12, 2026

Your weekly digest of the sharpest tactics, biggest upsets, and most grueling marathons.

📖 Featured: C45 Scotch Deep Dive
The Carnage Curve

Carnage Curve Maintains Peak at 2000 level

Across 7,736 games this week, the highest share of decisive results came from the club ranks around 2000. Among the elite, the draw rate roughly doubled.

2026-07-13T12:08:00.126260 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.8.4, https://matplotlib.org/

▲ Decisive-game rate by rating band (7,736 games). Decisiveness peaks around the 2000 club and drops among the elite, who drew about a third of their games.

The club ranks were the most decisive this week. In the 2000 to 2199 band, 81.9% of games ended with a winner, the highest rate of any tier. Climb to 2600 and it falls to 65%, with about a third of games ending in a draw.

Time controls impact: Online titled blitz ran 89.7% decisive; over the board it was 69.6%, a reminder that fast online play yields far more winners.

7,736
games surveyed
79.8%
ended decisively
90% · 70%
online vs OTB
1 in 5
100+ gap upsets won outright
🏆 The Roundup
Martinez runs Tuesday. Jose Martinez topped Titled Tuesday at a perfect 10/11, edging Levon Aronian by a point. In the Thursday arenas, Denis Lazavik cruised to 10/11, while over the board Kirill Shubin took the Cesme Open.
👑 Carlsen Watch
Another blitz-heavy week for Magnus: 9-0-2 across 11 games in a Thursday 3+0 arena. No draws, as usual.
🐉 Giant-Kill of the Week
The upset of the week is a giant slain. Bogaudinov, rated 1912, took down GM Grigoriy Oparin (2643) at Titled Tuesday. A 731-point gap, gone. See David vs Goliath →
🛡️ Iron Man
The busiest player of the week: Olexandr Bortnyk played 48 games and scored a strong 62%. Nobody logged more chess.
⚔️ The Battleground
White's system players led the volume: the Trompowsky (A45) and the Open Sicilian (B40) were the two busiest openings, and in both, Black could only scrape 43 to 45%.
📖 This Week’s Deep Dive
C45 Scotch Game: White’s Open-Center Attack

How White cracks the center open early and plays for the initiative. An interactive study of White’s winning methods.

Read the full breakdown →
Inside This Issue
🔥 Players on Fire: Who overperformed their rating, tier by tier.
⚔️ Opening Explorer: The week's highest-scoring lines across every Elo band.
🧝 David vs Goliath: The full board of giant-kills, Bogaudinov and beyond.
⏱️ Endgame Grinds: The marathons that refused to end.
🛡️ Ironmen: The grinders who played the most chess.
⚡ Master Miniatures: Elite games decided in under 25 moves.
👑 Carlsen's Corner: Every Magnus game, replayable.

Players Outperforming Their Rating

PlayerGamesScoreActual RatingPerformance RatingRating Diff
Van Foreest,Lucas97.025312740209
Kuru,Atilla2617.524762605129
Muzychuk,A1912.025222640118
Terry,R380272.025082625117
Droin,Augustin148.525012604103
Edouard,R2012.52538263799
Tsydypov,Z11079.02507260396
Zhao,Chenxi2214.52514261096
Finek,Vaclav1813.02584267995
Lazavik,Denis278208.52619270788
Dau Khuong Duy152108.52519260485
Ganguly,S106.52568265385
Zilka,S95.52516260185
Wan Yunguo2714.52503258683
Batsuren,Dambasuren2312.02504258076
PlayerGamesScoreActual RatingPerformance RatingRating Diff
Kuzmin,Roman1813.022932630337
Heimisson,Hilmir Freyr98.023102646336
Bespalov,Elisei54.022242556332
Gireman,J2116.023072621314
Makkar,Rajat54.524402752312
Baskakov,Egor117.522152526311
Luger,Sam95.022212522301
Boswell,Jacob Connor88.022582544286
Aayush,Bhattacherjee75.523812664283
Kokoszczynski,Jan117.522312507276
Ma,Lin52.522112469258
Sheremetev,Vladislav117.022272481254
Mescheryakov,Artem95.022392493254
Koziak,V95.523212569248
Kot,Emanuel119.023132552239
PlayerGamesScoreActual RatingPerformance RatingRating Diff
Akbas,Kaan169.081523261511
Li,Yuhan95.015222244722
Chen,Jonathan2612.017522353601
Leung,Kwan Yat Calix71.515362103567
Ligotnis,Maksims52.518642369505
Agar,Garig62.016322130498
Wayile,Jialade104.518132294481
Agarwal,Amartya Shiv82.515572034477
Dobrovolskaya,Polina52.517782254476
Bai,Moxuan86.018162284468
Sun,Jihan52.518352299464
Fraga,Heitor Carneiro85.520982539441
Kobak,Polina116.519862426440
Zhang,Haoxu74.019212358437
Amangeldinov,Alkey117.018722298426

July Week 1 Opening Explorer

Explore the highest-performing openings across different Elo tiers and time controls.

David vs Goliath: The Biggest Upsets

The Endgame Grind: Longest Games

The Most Active Tournament Grinders

PlayerGames PlayedScoreAvg Elo
Rustemov,A434262.02525
Bortnyk,Olexandr385271.52604
Terry,R380272.02508
Smail,Benedict326133.02077
Martinez Alcantara,Jose Eduardo324223.52649
Evans Quek,S319112.52280
Rohwer,P306116.02005
Sarana,A303224.02666
Furman,Eugene30376.00
Ashraf,Artin300199.52470
Pribelszky,Bence295157.02381
Brown,Akeem293127.02065
Nguyen Ngoc Truong Son286191.02600
Ambartsumova,K283150.52385
Ocampos,I279119.02262

Best Wins of the Top 10 Ironmen

Blink and You Missed It: Master Crushes

Magnus Carlsen: July Week 1 Performance

Weekly Record: 73 Wins | 16 Draws | 22 Losses